Saturday, August 14, 2010

2008 all over again?

As the fall approaches, we seem to be returning into the murky waters of the 2008 market. All summer, volumes in the market have been very low, probably mostly generated from a few computers trading amongst themselves. The Baltic freight rate has plummeted to a low of $1700 U.S., a symptom of reduced economic activity around the world. The Chinese economy is now slowing as their government pulls on the monetary reins. To top all of this off, the risk of sovereign debt crisis seems to be hiding under the surface, waiting to pop-up again, giving investors a nasty surprise.

What does this all mean? Well, the fall has the potential to be a repeat of fall 2008. If liquidity begins drying up, we could experience very strong selling pressures. Unfortunately, the only haven will be cash once again… making it king!