GDP Growth in US 5,7%?????

The new GDP numbers are out in the US, 5.7 percent increase in gross domestic product at an annual rate. The Bloomberg article U.S. Economy: Growth Jumps 5.7%, Fastest Pace in Six Years states:
The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines, indicating the recovery may be strong enough to be weaned from government support.
...
Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a 2 percent pace following a 2.8 percent increase in the previous three months. Economists projected a 1.8 percent gain, according to the survey median. Efforts to rebuild depleted inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to GDP, the most in two decades.

Unfortunately, growth may not be as robust as first report. It has become an interesting game of cat and mouse with the numbers. The numbers are often reassessed later, when they do not make headlines, on the downside. Also many private economist who do the number often disagree with some of the shake and bake accounting and have very different results when compiling the numbers. For example, Shadow Stats assessment of GDP:


Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

It is clear that the numbers from Shadow Stats reflect the disconnect between government number and what is probably really going on. The fact remains that the US consumer, that is responsible for 70% of GDP, is going through a deleveraging period and will be limited in his spending for a couple more years. On top on deleveraging, unemployment rates remain extremely high.


Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

The U6 measure of unemployment probably better reflect the state of the American worker. Without significant change in employment numbers and leverage, the American consumer may have a driven a little gain now (the stated 2%), but cannot drive any sustainable recovery. Exporting goods and service will have to become a more important part of the American economy if they wish to see significant growth return in any sustainable fashion.